Table 2

Calibration and discrimination of 5-year predicted breast cancer risks by menopausal status

Menopausal statusn. unaffectedn. BCsModelAUC (95% CI)Harrell’s C-index (95% CI)E/O (95% CI)Calibration slope (95% CI)
Subcohort with information on FH, QRFs, MD and PRS (n=15 502; n.BCs=676)
 Premenopausal5502212FH+QRFs+PRS0.68 (0.64 to 0.71)0.67 (0.62 to 0.70)1.10 (0.96 to 1.26)1.02 (0.99 to 1.05)
FH+QRFs+PRS+MD0.69 (0.65 to 0.72)0.68 (0.65 to 0.71)1.14 (1.00 to 1.31)1.03 (1.00 to 1.06)
 Postmenopausal9324464FH+QRFs+PRS0.66 (0.63 to 0.68)0.65 (0.63 to 0.68)0.97 (0.89 to 1.06)0.99 (0.97 to 1.02)
FH+QRFs+PRS+MD0.67 (0.64 to 0.69)0.67 (0.64 to 0.69)0.81 (0.74 to 0.89)0.95 (0.93 to 0.97)
Subcohort with information on FH, QRFs, MD, PRS and PV status (n=5693; n.BCs=280)
 Premenopausal121677FH+QRFs+PRS+PV0.70 (0.62 to 0.79)0.68 (0.62 to 0.74)1.11 (0.77 to 1.60)1.02 (0.99 to 1.06)
FH+QRFs+PRS+PV+MD0.69 (0.62 to 0.76)0.69 (0.62 to 0.76)1.13 (0.79 to 1.62)1.02 (0.99 to 1.05)
 Postmenopausal4197203FH+QRFs+PRS+PV0.68 (0.63 to 0.73)0.69 (0.66 to 0.72)0.94 (0.79 to 1.13)0.99 (0.96 to 1.01)
FH+QRFs+PRS+PV+MD0.68 (0.64 to 0.73)0.69 (0.66 to 0.73)0.78 (0.65 to 0.93)0.94 (0.92 to 0.96)
  • BC, breast cancer; C-index, concordance index; E, expected number of BCs in the 5-year period; FH, family history; MD, mammographic density in BI-RADS; n.BCs, number of patients with incident breast cancer; n.unaffected, number of unaffected women; O, observed number BCs; PRS, polygenic risk score; PV, pathogenic variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, CHECK2, ATM, RAD51C, RAD51D and BARD1; QRFs, questionnaire-based risk factors.