Table 1

Calibration and discrimination of 5-year predicted breast cancer risks under the BOADICEA model using different risk factor combinations

ModelAUC (95% CI)Harrell’s C-index (95% CI)E/O (95% CI)Calibration slope (95% CI)
Entire cohort with information on FH, QRFs and MD (n=66 415; n.BCs=816)
 FH0.62 (0.60 to 0.64)0.62 (0.60 to 0.64)1.12 (1.05 to 1.20)1.03 (1.01 to 1.05)
 QRFs0.62 (0.60 to 0.64)0.62 (0.60 to 0.64)0.95 (0.89 to 1.02)0.99 (0.97 to 1.01)
 MD0.62 (0.60 to 0.64)0.62 (0.60 to 0.64)0.94 (0.88 to 1.01)0.99 (0.97 to 1.01)
 FH+QRFs0.63 (0.62 to 0.65)0.63 (0.61 to 0.64)1.02 (0.95 to 1.09)1.01 (0.99 to 1.02)
 FH+QRFs+MD0.64 (0.62 to 0.66)0.64 (0.61 to 0.66)0.92 (0.86 to 0.99)0.98 (0.96 to 1.00)
Subcohort with information on FH, QRFs, MD and PRS (n=15 502; n.BCs=676)
 FH0.61 (0.59 to 0.64)0.63 (0.60 to 0.65)1.12 (1.04 to 1.21)1.03 (1.01 to 1.05)
 QRFs0.63 (0.61 to 0.65)0.63 (0.61 to 0.65)0.94 (0.87 to 1.01)0.99 (0.97 to 1.01)
 MD0.63 (0.61 to 0.65)0.64 (0.62 to 0.66)0.93 (0.87 to 1.01)0.99 (0.97 to 1.00)
 PRS0.67 (0.64 to 0.69)0.67 (0.65 to 0.69)1.06 (0.99 to 1.15)1.02 (1.00 to 1.03)
 FH+QRFs+MD0.65 (0.63 to 0.67)0.65 (0.63 to 0.67)0.91 (0.84 to 0.98)0.98 (0.96 to 1.00)
 FH+QRFs+PRS0.68 (0.66 to 0.70)0.68 (0.66 to 0.70)1.01 (0.94 to 1.09)1.00 (0.98 to 1.02)
 FH+QRFs+PRS+MD0.69 (0.67 to 0.71)0.69 (0.67 to 0.71)0.92 (0.85 to 0.99)0.98 (0.96 to 1.00)
Subcohort with information on FH, QRFs, MD, PRS and PV status (n=5693; n.BCs=280)
 FH+QRFs+PRS+MD0.69 (0.64 to 0.73)0.70 (0.67 to 0.73)0.88 (0.74 to 1.04)0.97 (0.95 to 0.99)
 FH+QRFs+PRS+MD+PV0.70 (0.66 to 0.73)0.71 (0.68 to 0.74)0.88 (0.75 to 1.04)0.97 (0.95 to 0.99)
  • BC, breast cancer; BOADICEA, Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm; C-index, concordance index; E, expected number of BCs in the 5-year period; FH, family history; MD, mammographic density in BI-RADS; n.BCs, number of patients with incident breast cancer ; O, observed number BCs; PRS, polygenic risk score; PV, pathogenic variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, CHECK2, ATM, RAD51C, RAD51D and BARD1; QRFs, questionnaire-based risk factors.