Table 1

HRs and 95% CIs of development of multiple islet autoantibodies after first appearance of any autoantibodies, development of type 1 diabetes after first appearance of any autoantibodies and development of type 1 diabetes after first appearance of multiple autoantibodies in children with the HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 or the HLA DR4-DQ8/DR4-DQ8 genotype as calculated from Cox proportional hazard models

Progression from any to multiple autoantibodiesProgression from any autoantibodies to type 1 diabetesProgression from multiple autoantibodies to type 1 diabetes
HR (95% CI)P valuesHR (95% CI)P valuesHR (95% CI)P values
Genetic risk score (per unit increase)*1.22 (1.07 to 1.40)0.0031.48 (1.21 to 1.80)0.00011.27 (1.02 to 1.58)0.03
HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8†1.11 (0.81 to 1.51)0.521.49 (0.94 to 2.37)0.091.33 (0.82 to 2.18)0.25
Female child1.01 (0.77 to 1.34)0.921.35 (0.91 to 1.98)0.131.94 (1.28 to 2.93)0.002
Age at onset of previous event (per year)‡0.89 (0.83 to 0.95)0.00030.70 (0.60 to 0.82)<0.00010.68 (0.58 to 0.81)<0.0001
Finland§0.83 (0.59 to 1.18)0.311.10 (0.67 to 1.81)0.700.95 (0.56 to 1.63)0.86
Germany0.67 (0.31 to 1.46)0.320.40 (0.10 to 1.67)0.210.39 (0.09 to 1.66)0.20
Sweden0.81 (0.58 to 1.12)0.190.98 (0.61 to 1.57)0.920.99 (0.60 to 1.62)0.96
  • *Genetic risk score is calculated without inclusion of HLA class II genotype.

  • †Reference is HLA DR4-DQ8/DR4-DQ8.

  • ‡Age at onset of the previous event (ie, of any islet autoantibodies in models 1 and 2, and of multiple islet autoantibodies in model 3); the HRs for age are reported as per 1 year increase for the sake of interpretability; however, exact age (ie, not rounded) was used in the regression models.

  • §Country is coded as dummy variable with USA as reference.

  • HLA, human leucocyte antigen.