Cumulative extracolonic cancer (ECC) risk estimates and average bias when applying Amsterdam criteria to 40 replicates of 1000 families carrying a HNPCC mutation, according to the actual risk in the simulated sample
| Actual ECC risk | Estimated risk | Average bias (%) | Range (min–max) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| “High” risk | ||||
| Men | ||||
| 39 | 0.1 | 0.07 | −30 | 0.04–0.13 |
| 59 | 0.2 | 0.12 | −38 | 0.07–0.22 |
| 79 | 0.5 | 0.29 | −42 | 0.12–0.78 |
| Women | ||||
| 39 | 0.15 | 0.11 | −27 | 0.04–0.17 |
| 59 | 0.4 | 0.30 | −24 | 0.16–0.44 |
| 79 | 0.65 | 0.44 | −32 | 0.24–1.00 |
| “Low” risk | ||||
| Men | ||||
| 39 | 0.05 | 0.04 | −20 | 0.01–0.07 |
| 59 | 0.15 | 0.10 | −32 | 0.03–0.18 |
| 79 | 0.35 | 0.24 | −31 | 0.11–0.59 |
| Women | ||||
| 39 | 0.1 | 0.08 | −20 | 0.05–0.12 |
| 59 | 0.3 | 0.21 | −30 | 0.16–0.26 |
| 79 | 0.5 | 0.37 | −26 | 0.22–0.61 |