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Risk of colorectal and endometrial cancer for carriers of mutations of the hMLH1 and hMSH2 gene: correction for ascertainment
  1. F Quehenberger1,
  2. H F A Vasen2,
  3. H C van Houwelingen1
  1. 1Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, Netherlands
  2. 2The Netherlands Foundation for the Detection of Hereditary Tumours, Leiden University Medical Centre
  1. Correspondence to:
 Dr Hans F A Vasen
 The Netherlands Foundation for the Detection of Hereditary Tumours, Leiden University Medical Centre, Rijnsburgerweg 10, “Poortgebouw Zuid”, 2333 AA Leiden, Netherlands; nfdhtxs4all.nl

Abstract

Background: Hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) is caused by germline mutations of mismatch repair genes, usually in hMLH1 or hMSH2. All earlier studies on penetrance except one population based study were conducted in HNPCC families and did not correct for the way in which these families were ascertained.

Objective: To obtain estimates of the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) and endometrial cancer (EC) for carriers of disease causing mutations of the hMSH2 and hMLH1 genes.

Methods: Families with known germline mutations of hMLH1 (n = 39) and hMSH2 (n = 45) were extracted from the Dutch HNPCC cancer registry. Ascertainment-corrected maximum likelihood estimation was carried out on a competing risks model for cancer of the colorectum and endometrium.

Results: Both loci were analysed jointly as there was no significant difference in risk (p = 0.08). At age 70, colorectal cancer risk for men was 26.7% (95% confidence interval, 12.6% to 51.0%) and for women, 22.4% (10.6% to 43.8%); the risk for endometrial cancer was 31.5% (11.1% to 70.3%).

Conclusions: Current estimates of the CRC risk of mutations to the hMLH1 and hMSH2 locus should be replaced by considerably lower risks which account for the selection of the families.

  • CRC, colorectal carcinoma
  • EC, endometrial carcinoma
  • HNPCC, hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer
  • MC, cancer at minor HNPCC sites
  • MMR, mismatch repair
  • hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer
  • hMLH1
  • hMSH2
  • colorectal cancer risk
  • endometrial cancer risk
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      Penetrance estimates from hMLH1 families
      Penetrance estimates from MSH2 families
      Details of statistical methods

Footnotes

  • Competing interests: none declared

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