Elsevier

Obstetrics & Gynecology

Volume 94, Issue 6, December 1999, Pages 1020-1023
Obstetrics & Gynecology

Original Articles
Predicting the risk of cystic fibrosis with echogenic fetal bowel and one cystic fibrosis mutation

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0029-7844(99)00443-3Get rights and content

Abstract

Objective: To assess fetal risk for cystic fibrosis when echogenic bowel and one cystic fibrosis mutation are detected.

Methods: A hypothetical cohort of 1000 women with singleton pregnancies and echogenic fetal bowel during the second trimester was used to determine the probability of cystic fibrosis when one cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator mutation was detected. The risk of cystic fibrosis was calculated using the range of prevalence of cystic fibrosis in fetuses with echogenic bowel reported in the literature. Risk calculations for fetuses of Ashkenazi Jewish, Northern European, African-American, Hispanic, and Asian descent accounted for carrier frequencies and mutation detection rates specific to each ethnic group.

Results: As the assumed prevalence of cystic fibrosis increases from 1–25%, the probability that a white fetus with one mutation and echogenic fetal bowel actually has cystic fibrosis increases from 4.8% to 62.5%. Assuming a 2% risk of cystic fibrosis with echogenic fetal bowel, an Ashkenazi Jewish fetus and an Asian fetus with echogenic bowel and one mutation have a 3.1% and 72% risk of cystic fibrosis, respectively. The probability of cystic fibrosis in a nonwhite fetus is between those two extremes.

Conclusion: The probability of cystic fibrosis after detection of echogenic bowel and one cystic fibrosis mutation varied among ethnic groups. Even at the highest prevalence of cystic fibrosis, most white fetuses will not have cystic fibrosis. In nonwhite populations almost half of these fetuses will have cystic fibrosis, even at the lowest prevalence of cystic fibrosis.

Section snippets

Materials and methods

We used a hypothetical cohort of 1000 singleton fetuses with second-trimester echogenic bowel to calculate the probability of cystic fibrosis when a single cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator mutation is detected (Figure 1). Cystic fibrosis detection rates for mutations in different ethnic populations were based on the National Institutes of Health’s Consensus Statement on Genetic Testing for Cystic Fibrosis.12

The reported prevalence of cystic fibrosis in fetuses with

Results

The model used to calculate the rate of cystic fibrosis among Northern European fetuses with echogenic bowel and one mutation is shown in Figure 1. In this population, approximately 4% (one in 25) are mutation carriers, with a mutation detection rate of 90%. Assuming a 2% prevalence of cystic fibrosis in fetuses with echogenic bowel, 20 of 1000 fetuses in our hypothetical cohort will have cystic fibrosis. With a 90% detection rate, 81% (16.2 of 20) of the fetuses with cystic fibrosis will have

Discussion

The genetic counseling that should be provided to women with fetuses having echogenic bowel and a single cystic fibrosis mutation has been debated. A prenatal diagnostic counseling dilemma arises when fetuses with echogenic bowel test positive for one cystic fibrosis mutation. The situation is difficult and not uncommon, especially in referral centers. Our analysis presents a theoretical model that permits calculation of the predicted rate of cystic fibrosis, given echogenic fetal bowel and a

References (12)

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    Once fetal echogenic bowel is diagnosed a flow-chart of additional investigations should be undertaken. Literature proposes investigation of history of uterine bleeding, Level-2 ultrasound (US) in a referral center for fetal medicine, counseling for eventual fetal karyotyping, parental and/or fetal screening for cystic fibrosis and TORCH infections serology [5,13–16]. While the role of fetal echogenic bowel as a soft marker for chromosomal abnormalities has been extensively investigated [5], the rate of fetal infection when this diagnosis occurs is less clear.

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    Fetal echogenic bowel (echogenic bowel) is a sonographic marker associated with an increased incidence of fetal pathology, including cystic fibrosis, fetal aneuploidy, bowel pathology, and congenital infection, as well as placental insufficiency and fetal growth restriction.1–4

  • Focus on cystic fibrosis and other disorders evidenced in fetuses with sonographic finding of echogenic bowel: 16-year report from Brittany, France

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    We have already detailed the way to calculate such a risk in a previous article.20 This probability, relying on Bayesian calculations, heavily depends on the following 3 parameters: the prevalence of CF in fetuses with FEB, the carrier rate, and the mutation detection rate, which varies between geographic or ethnic groups and according to the molecular strategy chosen.5,30,31 Classically, the highest residual risk occurs in populations with the lowest detection rate and generally the lowest carrier frequency.

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    Recent studies demonstrate that the risk of CF with prenatally detected echogenic bowel ranges from 1.3% to 13.3%.11,29,32 The ability to detect fetuses with CF by identifying echogenic bowel seems to be dependent on ethnic-racial background risks3,29; the detection of concurrent fetal anomalies (such detection lowers the risk for fetal CF)11; and ultrasound-specific issues, such as machine-technical issues and operator experience and variability.11 Fetal or parental assessment for CF should be offered when fetal echogenic bowel is detected in the second trimester, because even a 1.3% risk for an affected fetus is high enough to warrant further evaluation.29

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