Table 7

Comparison of expected and observed cancers for categories defined by breast cancer risk factors for the women enrolled in the screening programme

Variable	N	O	Gail			Claus			Ford			Tyrer–Cuzick			Manual
Variable	N	O	E	E/O	95% CI	E	E/O	95% CI	E	E/O	95% CI	E	E/O	95% CI	E	E/O	95% CI
FDR, first degree relative; OC, ovarian cancer.
Family history
1 FDR	686	18	6.98	0.39	0.25 to 0.65	5.79	0.32	0.20 to 0.54	5.36	0.30	0.19 to 0.50	10.05	0.56	0.35 to 0.94	12.14	0.67	0.43 to 1.14
2 FDRs	137	3	3.56	1.19	0.41 to 5.75	2.45	0.82	0.28 to 3.96	1.88	0.63	0.21 to 3.04	3.51	1.17	0.40 to 5.67	3.45	1.15	0.39 to 5.58
1 FDR+2 other relatives	405	13	6.87	0.53	0.31 to 0.99	10.51	0.81	0.47 to 1.52	7.82	0.60	0.35 to 1.13	11.41	0.88	0.51 to 1.65	12.74	0.98	0.57 to 1.84
OC	128	8	1.64	0.21	0.10 to 0.47	2.27	0.28	0.14 to 0.66	3.74	0.47	0.24 to 1.08	4.83	0.60	0.31 to 1.40	3.88	0.49	0.25 to 1.12
Other history	577	10	5.98	0.60	0.33 to 1.25	8.13	0.81	0.44 to 1.70	6.60	0.66	0.36 to 1.38	12.25	1.23	0.67 to 2.55	14.20	1.42	0.77 to 2.96
Menarche
⩽12 years	840	21	11.12	0.53	0.35 to 0.86	11.82	0.56	0.37 to 0.91	10.34	0.49	0.32 to 0.80	17.49	0.83	0.54 to 1.35	20.12	0.96	0.63 to 1.55
>12 years	1093	31	13.91	0.45	0.32 to 0.66	17.33	0.56	0.39 to 0.82	15.06	0.49	0.34 to 0.71	24.56	0.79	0.56 to 1.17	26.31	0.85	0.60 to 1.25
First live birth
⩽30 years	1292	28	18.00	0.64	0.44 to 0.97	19.95	0.71	0.49 to 1.07	17.16	0.61	0.42 to 0.92	25.87	0.92	0.64 to 1.39	29.28	1.05	0.72 to 1.57
>30 years or nulliparous	641	24	7.03	0.29	0.20 to 0.46	9.20	0.38	0.26 to 0.60	8.24	0.34	0.23 to 0.54	16.17	0.67	0.45 to 1.05	17.14	0.71	0.48 to 1.11