Table 6

Comparison of expected and observed cancers for categories defined by breast cancer risk factors for the full study population

Variable	N	O	Prevalent cancers	Gail			Claus			Ford			Tyrer–Cuzick			Manual
Variable	N	O	Prevalent cancers	E	E/O	95% CI	E	E/O	95% CI	E	E/O	95% CI	E	E/O	95% CI	E	E/O	95% CI
OC, ovarian cancer; FDR, first degree relative.
Family history
1 FDR	1224	25	4	13.69	0.55	0.37 to 0.85	10.93	0.44	0.30 to 0.68	10.29	0.41	0.28 to 0.64	18.78	0.75	0.51 to 1.16	22.56	0.90	0.61 to 1.39
2 FDRs	204	4	2	6.56	1.64	0.64 to 6.02	4.08	1.02	0.40 to 3.74	3.16	0.79	0.31 to 2.90	6.28	1.57	0.61 to 5.76	5.41	1.35	0.53 to 4.96
1 FDR+2 other relatives	555	14	6	11.02	0.79	0.47 to 1.44	16.73	1.20	0.71 to 2.19	12.36	0.88	0.53 to 1.61	17.90	1.28	0.76 to 2.34	19.94	1.42	0.85 to 2.61
OC	196	9	2	2.75	0.31	0.16 to 0.67	3.40	0.38	0.20 to 0.83	5.53	0.61	0.32 to 1.34	6.83	0.76	0.40 to 1.66	6.07	0.67	0.36 to 1.47
Other history	971	12	6	10.28	0.86	0.49 to 1.66	13.41	0.76	0.64 to 2.16	10.95	0.91	0.52 to 1.77	19.76	1.65	0.94 to 3.19	23.95	2.00	1.14 to 3.86
Menarche
⩽12 years	1391	26	5	19.49	0.75	0.51 to 1.15	19.79	0.76	0.52 to 1.17	17.30	0.67	0.45 to 1.02	29.43	1.13	0.77 to 1.73	33.90	1.30	0.89 to 2.00
>12 years	1759	38	15	24.81	0.65	0.48 to 0.92	28.76	0.76	0.55 to 1.07	24.98	0.66	0.48 to 0.93	40.13	1.06	0.77 to 1.49	44.02	1.16	0.84 to 1.64
First live birth
⩽30 years	2026	38	13	32.31	0.85	0.62 to 1.20	33.81	0.89	0.65 to 1.26	29.34	0.77	0.56 to 1.09	43.92	1.16	0.84 to 1.63	48.35	1.27	0.93 to 1.80
>30 years or nulliparous	1124	26	7	12.00	0.46	0.31 to 0.71	14.75	0.57	0.39 to 0.87	12.94	0.50	0.34 to 0.76	25.65	0.99	0.67 to 1.61	29.58	1.14	0.78 to 1.74