Cumulative colorectal cancer (CRC) risk estimates and biases when applying Amsterdam criteria on 40 replicates of 1000 families carrying a HNPCC mutation, according to the actual risk in the simulated sample
| Actual CRC risk | Estimated risk | Bias (%) | Range (min–max) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| “High” risks | ||||
| Men | ||||
| 39 | 0.2 | 0.29 | 46 | 0.21–0.34 |
| 59 | 0.5 | 0.68 | 37 | 0.60–0.75 |
| 79 | 0.8 | 0.93 | 17 | 0.89–1.00 |
| Women | ||||
| 39 | 0.2 | 0.31 | 56 | 0.23–0.37 |
| 59 | 0.4 | 0.59 | 48 | 0.51–0.65 |
| 79 | 0.7 | 0.88 | 26 | 0.81–0.96 |
| “Low” risks | ||||
| Men | ||||
| 39 | 0.1 | 0.21 | 110 | 0.12–0.34 |
| 59 | 0.3 | 0.57 | 90 | 0.45–0.68 |
| 79 | 0.6 | 0.87 | 45 | 0.64–1.00 |
| Women | ||||
| 39 | 0.1 | 0.23 | 130 | 0.16–0.36 |
| 59 | 0.2 | 0.45 | 125 | 0.32–0.68 |
| 79 | 0.5 | 0.81 | 62 | 0.62–1.00 |